Traditional advertising will continue to collapse
..whilst the internet (and public relations) will continue to grow. Advertising in the traditional media must continue to decline and any other view is probably wishful thinking by those with vested interests in this sector. Of course, it has been and will continue to support (and be important to) major marketing and creative industries. But it must continue to decline even after the recession has faded into a distant memory ... for the simple reason that the public do not need advertising like the advertisers do. And the new media offer compelling, cheap, speedier more accessible options for all information and not just advertising information. Therefore, as advertising continues to decline so will those sectors dependent on these revenues unless they work harder at finding other ways to update their services and/or add new revenues.
The internet may be inefficient, irritating, disorganised and, in many aspects, amateurish in its service delivery to its users, but these problems will be resolved over time. And they are totally insignificant in comparison to the benefits that the web brings.
In a nutshell, advertisers used to place advertising to deliver messages to people essentially doing other things and hoped that their creative and marketing skills would catch their attention. A brilliant advert might persuade someone to try a new product, consider a new holiday destination or look at an alternative service to the ones the consumer was already using. But now, people use the internet not to find out how to spend their money in some random chance way but target their searches into those areas where they already have interest. The appetite for new and better products and services will continue at an ever-increasing pace (once we are back to 'normal' economic times). These appetites will be met through innovative news and public relations techniques, largely using the new media but with a continuing role for the traditional media.
The message to advertising is clear; get your public relations and on-line services totally integrated. The message to the old media is also clear: cut costs, sharpen focus and play to your strengths. For example, newspapers will become not purveyors of news but portable information media. Magazines will become increasing more tightly-targetted specialist organs. The generalist titles will largely disappear. Those few examples of old media that will survive will be integrated with new media and promoted almost exclusively through new media ... something that few are doing yet. And even those that are trying are mostly failing.
What does the advertising industry think?
The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising in the UK says that the decline in advertising revues has slowed and believes this may be an indication of better times to come. Says Rory Sutherland, IPA president and vice- chairman, Ogilvy Group UK: "To anyone optimistically inclined, the new Bellweather report suggests that the worst is over. Budget cutting for all marketing communications categories seems to be slowing and, while the economy is still tough, the balance of executives reporting improved prospects moved into positive territory for the first time since the start of 2008."
For the IPA news story see:
http://www.ipa.co.uk/Content/Q2-2009-Bellwether-shows-marketing-budgets-cuts-at-slower-rate
Roger Haywood comments on public opinion issues. He is a leading observer of the public relations and marketing industries. He recently set up a website for young professionals seeking a top job in public relations, based on his experience in recruiting and training hundreds of graduates:
Haywood is the UK's leading issues analyst who originated the concept of issues management. He is the only person to have chaired both the Chartered Institute of Public Relations and the Chartered Institute of Marketing. He also helped form and chaired the world's largest network of independent business communications consultancies.